CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 27/11 - 06Z SUN 28/11 2004
ISSUED: 26/11 19:58Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across the central Mediterranean.

SYNOPSIS

Short-wave trough imbedded in broad WNWLY upper flow regime will continue SEWD across central Europe and the N and central Mediterranean on Saturday ... with upstream trough ... remnant from the developing upper cut-off low off the Iberian W coast ... expected to reach the British Isles towards the end of the FCST period.

DISCUSSION

...central Mediterranean regions...
It looks that weakly unstable profiles are to develop over the central Mediterranean Sea within plume of low-level moist air in response to approaching upper trough. Expecting scattered TSTMS with this feature ... about 10 m/s 850 hPa flow and 15 m/s 500 hPa flow will likely be somewhat marginal given weak thermodynamic setup ... however ... Friday's 12Z launches indicate that boundary layer is nearly saturated locally ... suggesting that any updraft that does develop rotation might pose enhanced threat for producing a weak tornado. Also ... the stronger cells may produce strong outflow winds. However ... allover severe TSTM threat looks to be rather low ATTM.

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